A new model attempting to plot the path of an upcoming Omicron variant-fueled surge in coronavirus cases predicts that Florida will see as many as 40,000 cases per day during a February peak.
That’s nearly 75% higher than the worst numbers we saw during the August peak of the Delta variant surge. That particularly deadly strain rampaged across the state following the end of coronavirus restrictions, with 23,000 cases per day at its peak. The numbers come from University of Florida researchers looking at recent early spikes and modeling a possible path based around what we’ve seen of previous surges.
The most-likely model accounted for the increased contagiousness of the Omicron variant and the lack of mitigation on a local level. Even with an increased rate of vaccination, the likelihood of Floridians catching the new strain is high.
“This is an incredibly contagious variant that transmits very rapidly and quickly through the population,” Glenn Morris of the Emerging Pathogens Institute at UF told the Tampa Bay Times.
Other researchers say we’re already seeing the beginnings of a massive spike.
“Florida has had a 228% increase in cases… At the beginning of the month, we saw just under 10,000 cases in an entire week, and over the past four days alone, we’ve seen 36,000 cases,” Dr. Jason Salemi, an associate professor of epidemiology at USF, told WESH.
Closer to home, AdventHealth shared that their positivity rate had skyrocketed from under 5% to over 20% in a matter of weeks. While the Omicron variant has not been isolated and confirmed in the hospitalized cases, Chief Medical Officer Dr. Victor Herrera said the timing is no coincidence.
Luckily, nearly all medical professionals have agreed that the Omicron variant appears less deadly than former strains. So, while you’re much more likely to catch it, severe cases seem less common.
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This article appears in Dec 22-28, 2021.