Just weeks before the Florida Legislature is scheduled to redraw the congressional map, a majority of likely voters are opposed to mid-decade redistricting, a new poll shows.
More than 56% of the 1,125 Floridians surveyed think it’s a “bad idea,” according to the Emerson College poll released Thursday.
That represents a vast majority of Democrats and independents. While most Republicans polled support redistricting, a hefty slice also oppose it — reflecting a notable GOP undercurrent concerned that Gov. Ron DeSantis’ push could inadvertently cost conservative seats.
“Perception of potential redistricting is fairly split even within the parties: Republican voters think a redraw is a good idea at 57% and Democrats think it is a bad idea at 65%, similar to independent voters, who oppose 64% to 36%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
At the beginning of the year, DeSantis issued a proclamation calling for a week-long special session starting April 20 to redraw Florida’s political lines. Because redistricting is typically only done every 10 years in accordance with new U.S. Census data, the mid-decade plan is highly unusual.
But Florida Republicans, with their special session date drawing ever nearer, have begun to publicly split with the governor over whether to redistrict.
The GOP was rocked by two special election upsets last week when heavily bolstered legislative candidates suffered surprise losses to underfunded Democratic opponents. These defeats prompted warnings from top Republican leaders, Punchbowl News reported.
“Don’t do it. I’ve said it from the beginning,” former state House speaker and sitting U.S. Rep. Daniel Webster told the outlet. “I’ve been around enough reapportionments to know it’s a slippery slope.”
Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart acknowledged that while Republicans could possibly pick up two new seats, “I think after that, you are really, really, really, really risking a very large overreach, which I think is in the Democrats’ best interest.”
SCOTUS’ role
The move to quickly redistrict comes ahead of a highly anticipated ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court in a voting rights case out of Louisiana. The high court could bar states from taking the racial makeup of districts’ populations into account when drawing congressional lines.
Despite no ruling yet from the Supreme Court, states rushed to redistrict after President Trump — hoping to pad the GOP’s slim congressional majority — told Texas Republicans to redraw their map.
A political domino effect ensued. California Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom threatened to retaliate by creating more Democratic seats in his state. Democrats in Illinois, Virginia, and Maryland have discussed redrawing their congressional maps, as have GOP lawmakers in Nebraska and Kansas.
Among Florida’s state-level leaders, minor disagreements emerged. Although DeSantis, Senate President Ben Albritton, and House Speaker Danny Perez all want to redistrict, they have differed on the best time to do it. Perez wanted to redistrict as soon as possible, while both DeSantis and Albritton emphasized the need to wait for the SCOTUS decision.
But less than three weeks ahead of the special session, SCOTUS is still quiet on the issue.
What’s in the poll?
The Emerson College Polling Florida survey was conducted March 29 to 31 with a 2.8% margin for error. For redistricting, 64% and 65% of independents and Democrats surveyed, respectively, believed redistricting to be a bad idea. So did 44% of Republican likely voters.
The poll found that U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, the Trump-endorsed candidate for governor, is destroying his GOP competition.
Among likely Republican voters, 46% support Donalds. His next closest rival is “undecided” at 39%, followed by Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and investor James Fishback, tied at 4%. Former state House Speaker Paul Renner is at 3%.
In a hypothetical general election, Donalds leads former Republican U.S. Rep. David Jolly, now a Democrat, 44% to 39%, and Democratic Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, 45% to 36%.
In hypothetical U.S. Senate matchups, incumbent Republican Sen. Ashley Moody leads in all three of her potential head-to-heads against Democrats.
She leads Trump whistleblower Alexander Vindman, 46% to 38%; state Rep. Angie Nixon, 47% to 36%; and former Google executive Hector Mujica, 45% to 38% — although Mujica announced Thursday that he was dropping out of the Senate race to instead challenge U.S. Rep. Carlos Gimenez in the 28th congressional district.
Florida Phoenix is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Contact Michael Moline for questions: info@floridaphoenix.com. Follow Florida Phoenix on Facebook and Twitter.
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