The site gives, run by renowned statistician Nate Silver, gives Trump a 65.9% chance of winning Florida’s 29 electoral votes, while Hillary is forecasted to win 34.1% of the votes.
FiveThirtyEight was created in 2008 to predict the outcomes of elections. It weighs and averages polling data from state and national polls. The probabilities are then calculated by simulating the election 20,000 times, taking into account every possible outcome per state.
As for its national forecast, Trump is leading with a 57.5% chance of winning the election in November. Hillary currently sits at 42.5%.
FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts were first released on June 29, and will be updated each time new polling data becomes available.
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This article appears in Jul 20-26, 2016.