Lowering its number of anticipated storms, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration maintained that storm activity for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season will continue to be “below-normal.”
NOAA updated its estimate, raising the chance of below-normal activity from 55 percent, when its initial forecast was made in May, to 75 percent.
The change is based on El Niño conditions that increase wind shear, which tends to prevent tropical storms from forming or strengthening once formed. Other less influential factors include near-average temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and a neutral west African monsoon.
“When El Niño emerges, it usually becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity, and this El Niño continues to get stronger every month,” Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Weather Service, stated. “Compared to a mature El Niño, other mechanisms play a smaller role in determining the number and intensity of tropical storms in the Atlantic basin.”
NOAA also dropped its predicted named storms to between seven and 13, down from eight to 14 storms when it released its initial forecast in May. The number of storms becoming hurricanes is down from three to seven to two to six.
To date, the 2026 season has produced two named tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, both in the Gulf.
On Wednesday, Colorado State University researchers further reduced their projections for the number of named systems, including the odds of landfalls. Last week, the meteorological company AccuWeather recently maintained its revised forecast for the nearly two-month-old hurricane season of 8- to 14-named storms of which four to seven will grow into hurricanes.
Before the season started on June 1, AccuWeather forecast between 11 and 16 named storms.
