David Jolly leads Jerry Demings in one of the first major polls of the Democratic primary for governor of Florida in 2026, but the majority of 400 registered Democratic voters surveyed are undecided.
The Mason-Dixon poll shows Jolly, a former Republican member of Congress, leading Demings, mayor of Orange County, 23%-19%. But 58% are undecided in the August primary.
It’s a little clearer in the GOP primary in the Mason-Dixon survey, with Naples U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds with a huge lead over three other Republicans.
Donalds gets 37% of the vote, with Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (now officially in the race), a distant second with 7%. Former House Speaker Paul Renner is at 4% and investment firm CEO James Fishback is at 3%.
However, nearly half (49%) say they are undecided in the Republican race.
Other polls taken in recent months show Donalds leading in the GOP race, with his numbers rising exponentially when pollsters inform Republican voters that Donalds has been endorsed by President Donald Trump.
“It should be noted that Donalds is the only candidate in either race whose name is recognized by more than half of his party’s voters,” said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker. ” That name recognition advantage is an important factor behind his frontrunner status.”
The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy from Jan. 8 through Jan. 13, 2026. It was made up of two separate statewide samples – one of 400 registered Democratic voters and one of 400 registered Republican voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 5%.
Florida Phoenix is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Contact Michael Moline for questions: info@floridaphoenix.com. Follow Florida Phoenix on Facebook and Twitter.
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