Fall Guide 2009 - Civics

The mayoral horse race

There are a bevy of candidates vying for Orange County mayor next year — the primary is Aug. 24, and the general election is Nov. 2 — and all of them think they'll win, but most are deluding themselves. And a year out, we're willing to take bets on who the victor will be. So allow us to handicap next year's most important campaign.

As of this writing, six people have declared their candidacy. Another pol is expected to toss her hat in the ring, so we'll include her too. That's seven. Here they are, in descending order of likelihood to win.

Akinyemi Agbede: 5,000-to-1 Rule of thumb: If no one knows who you are, you're a long shot. If no one knows who you are and you have a foreign-sounding name, give up.

Reinaldo Vazquez: 1,000-to-1 At least this guy has a Facebook page. Of course, it's in Spanish and he only has 26 fans (as of this writing), so he's got something of an uphill climb if he wants to win anything west of State Road 436.

Tim Adams: 800-to-1 A perennial candidate for various offices, and a perennial loser.

Matthew Falconer: 500-to-1 Orange County has a lot of crazy, but there aren't enough teabaggers to push Falconer over the finish line.

Mildred Fernandez: 50-to-1 She's not officially in yet, but the Orange County commissioner is showing interest. She has some support in the Hispanic community, but can barely string together a coherent sentence.

Linda Stewart: 10-to-1 This county commissioner has always surprised her detractors with tenacity, but this may prove too steep a hill. Stewart is intelligent, progressive and almost effervescent, but a win here would be one hell of an upset. Her odds get better if Fernandez opts out.

Bill Segal: 2-to-1 If Segal, another Orange County commissioner, loses, it will be because he screwed up. A developer, booze aficionado and wiseass, Segal's also hooked up to the big power brokers. Watch for him to rack up huge contributions and spend everyone else out of the race.

— Jeffrey C. Billman

[email protected]


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