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Wednesday, August 11, 2021

Orlando remains in Tropical Storm Fred's potential path

Posted By on Wed, Aug 11, 2021 at 11:25 AM

click to enlarge NHC
  • NHC

Nearly all of Florida is still in the "cone of uncertainty" for Tropical Storm Fred. As the storm passes over Hispaniola, the National Hurricane Center still has Central Florida in its representation of a potential path for the storm.

The storm is expected to weaken as it moves over that Caribbean island, with both the land mass and shear weakening the storm. However, forecasters believe the storm could reintensify once it gets over the Gulf of Mexico.

"Fred is now in an environment of 15-20 kt of westerly vertical shear produced in part by an upper-level trough near the Florida Peninsula, and the global models suggests that moderate shear should persist for at least the next 48-60 h," the NHC shared.  "This, combined with land interaction, should cause Fred to weaken as it crosses Hispaniola, and then at best slowly re-intensify after it emerges over the water."

Forecasters note that it is too soon to determine which parts of Florida will be impacted by the storm and to what degree.

"There is an increasing risk of wind and rainfall impacts in Florida beginning Friday night or early Saturday in the Keys and spreading northward through portions of the Peninsula and the Panhandle Saturday through Monday," the center stated.

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