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Fall Guide

Fall Guide 2009 - Civics

 

The mayoral horse race

There are a bevy of candidates vying for Orange County mayor next year – the primary is Aug. 24, and the general election is Nov. 2 – and all of them think they’ll win, but most are deluding themselves. And a year out, we’re willing to take bets on who the victor will be. So allow us to handicap next year’s most important campaign.

As of this writing, six people have declared their candidacy. Another pol is expected to toss her hat in the ring, so we’ll include her too. That’s seven. Here they are, in descending order of likelihood to win.

Akinyemi Agbede: 5,000-to-1 Rule of thumb: If no one knows who you are, you’re a long shot. If no one knows who you are and you have a foreign-sounding name, give up.

Reinaldo Vazquez: 1,000-to-1 At least this guy has a Facebook page. Of course, it’s in Spanish and he only has 26 fans (as of this writing), so he’s got something of an uphill climb if he wants to win anything west of State Road 436.

Tim Adams: 800-to-1 A perennial candidate for various offices, and a perennial loser.

Matthew Falconer: 500-to-1 Orange County has a lot of crazy, but there aren’t enough teabaggers to push Falconer over the finish line.

Mildred Fernandez: 50-to-1 She’s not officially in yet, but the Orange County commissioner is showing interest. She has some support in the Hispanic community, but can barely string together a coherent sentence.

Linda Stewart: 10-to-1 This county commissioner has always surprised her detractors with tenacity, but this may prove too steep a hill. Stewart is intelligent, progressive and almost effervescent, but a win here would be one hell of an upset. Her odds get better if Fernandez opts out.

Bill Segal: 2-to-1 If Segal, another Orange County commissioner, loses, it will be because he screwed up. A developer, booze aficionado and wiseass, Segal’s also hooked up to the big power brokers. Watch for him to rack up huge contributions and spend everyone else out of the race.

— Jeffrey C. Billman

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Comments on this story:

Report this comment On 9/28/2009 10:38:28 AM, Anonymous said:

I agree with part of this story, but the author should check the latest polls before declaring a victor.

Report this comment On 9/28/2009 12:27:57 PM, Anonymous said:

Jeff Billman or Eric Foglesong? Just a question. Also two words on insiders who are deemed to "have it in the bag": Shannon Gravitte. Two more words: Roger Chapin. Also see: Linda Chapin What about Mr. 2-1's dismal poll numbers? Rich Crotty - 74.2% name recognition, 38.6% favoribility LINDA STEWART - 65.7% name recognition, 32.3% favoribility Bill Segal - 45% name recognition, 14% favoribility Mildred Fernandez - 38.9% name recognition, 14.9% favoribility Who would you vote for if the election were held today? LINDA STEWART - 19.1% Support Teresa Jacobs - 8.8% support Daniel Webster - 8.3% support Bill Segal - 5.0% support Mildred Fernandez - 3.5% support Other - 1.5% support

Report this comment On 9/28/2009 10:38:13 PM, Anonymous said:

The only poll that counts is cash on hand! and Stewart intelligent??? She's unintelligent, incoherent and a joke and she wants to lead Orange County??? Plus she and her campaign manager have major ethical problems!

Report this comment On 9/28/2009 10:55:37 PM, Anonymous said:

The only poll that counts is cash on hand! and Stewart intelligent??? She's unintelligent, incoherent and a joke and she wants to lead Orange County??? Plus she and her campaign manager have major ethical problems!

Report this comment On 9/29/2009 10:53:26 AM, Lamar said:

The Democratic faithful in Orlando will surely miss Billman's out-and-out cheerleading for Buddy Dyer and the rest of the failed local liberal establishment. Keep in mind, this paper endorsed Buddy Dyer, and now it is starting down that same path. Matthew Falconer is 500-1 because there aren't enough "teabaggers"? Billman endorsed Buddy Dyer supposedly because his last opponent didn't have a plan. Now it turns out that having a plan isn't good enough if you can somehow work in the word "teabagger". Let's talk about what "crazy" means: endorsing an establishment liberal, watching him fail in every respect, then endorsing the next establishment liberal in the next election because you're a die hard Democrat. Now THAT sounds crazy to me. (BTW: I don't endorse M. Falconer, but these candidates should get their views and plans out there instead of being brushed aside as a "crazy" "teabagger").

Report this comment On 9/29/2009 10:50:45 PM, Anonymous said:

Remember that money comes from people who want favors in return. When are we going to bring ethics back to Orange County? Certainly not with Segal unless its from a bar as the writer says.

Report this comment On 10/30/2009 9:25:57 PM, Anonymous said:

If I may ask? Which name sounds "FOREIGN" in the USA? And I hope you don't mean what I'm thinking right now.

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